Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbef…9ab0 politics 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$831 (-1%) realized −$7,336 · open +$6,505
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate48%119W / 129L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$26,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$246
14 days+$3
30 days−$9,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$5,069
other 30% −$3,517
politics 15% −$2,989
tech 6% −$163
culture 2% +$44
economics 1% −$128
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$106
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +330.1% +289.1% 70% 70% +168.9%
≤30d 131 +6.1% -4.0% 29% 19% -39.0%
≤90d 212 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 23% -27.3%
all 248 +2.0% -7.7% 48% 29% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 29% -25.1%
10% -16.6% 19% -32.2%
15% -24.6% 15% -38.8%
20% -32.0% 10% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$101 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$26,281
Realized−$7,336
Unrealized+$6,505
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses119 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions54
Markets (closed)248 / 302
History coverage99d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 50¢ 84¢ $10,529 $17,608 +$7,079 (+67%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 32¢ 40¢ $4,126 $5,216 +$1,090 (+26%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 13¢ 8¢ $4,702 $3,073 −$1,629 (-35%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? No 8¢ 53¢ $15 $97 +$82 (+549%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? No 15¢ 9¢ $103 $65 −$38 (-37%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? No 8¢ 8¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? No 10¢ 10¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? No 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? No 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? No 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? No 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? No 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? No 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? No 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? No 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? No 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? No 10¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$64 +1250%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$31 +147%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$126 +605%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 10 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $5 +$36 +702%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Trump say "Yips" in June? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $29 −$28 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $18 +$246 +1394%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 07 $19 −$18 -96%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -59%
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Jun 05 $14 +$2 +14%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 05 $100 −$86 -86%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 04 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Jun 04 $2,899 −$309 -11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $21 −$9 -44%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 Jun 01 $6 −$5 -76%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $6 +$5 +75%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Jun 01 $6 −$2 -36%
Trump on $250 bill this year? Jun 01 $9 −$2 -17%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 01 $89 −$60 -67%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 -14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump praise Joe Biden by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $165 +$128 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $24 0m
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $12 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $14 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $2 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $35 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $30 13h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $66 13h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $22 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $4 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $36 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $20 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $30 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $18 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $12 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $9 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $39 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $5 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $24 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,280.93 · official $26,279.82 (match) · 1670 history records