Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcbed…d0e7 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$499 (+24%) realized +$503 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$521
sports 8% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 86% 71% +11.8%
≤30d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 86% 71% +11.8%
≤90d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 86% 71% +11.8%
all 7 +17.3% +6.1% 86% 71% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 71% +11.8%
10% -4.0% 57% +1.1%
15% -13.3% 43% -8.6%
20% -21.8% 29% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$159 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$483
Realized+$503
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $486 $483 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$210 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $220 +$82 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $299 +$80 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $262 +$38 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $160 +$102 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $146 +$14 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $511 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $301 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $301 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $220 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $159 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $379 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $299 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $299 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $262 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $160 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $160 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $146 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.76 · official $482.76 (match) · 15 history records