Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcbed…bbb9
sports · 35 markets active 2d ago
6.5score
+$298,676 +204%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$298,546 · open +$129
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,751
Realized+$298,546
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
Avg bet$4,193
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 61¢ 66¢ $1,442 $1,556 +$114 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 58¢ $179 $194 +$15 (+8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $1,325 $0 −$1,325 (-100%)
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns North Carolina State Wolfpack 51¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers UMBC Retrievers 54¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $1,865 $0 −$1,865 (-100%)
Spread: Houston Cougars (-9.5) Texas A&M Aggies 49¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Wake Forest Demon Deacons 75¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $282 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 12 $38 +$16 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 12 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 12 $78 +$6 +7%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 19 $36 +$8 +23%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 08 $97 +$23 +24%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 23 $23 +$7 +28%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Mar 23 $103 +$19 +19%
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Mar 22 $1,865 −$1,865 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 22 $18 −$1 -3%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 22 $6 +$3 +53%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $9 +$6 +70%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 22 $18 +$2 +13%
Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5 Mar 22 $1,096 +$861 +79%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Mar 21 $1,235 $0 +0%
Spread: Houston Cougars (-9.5) Mar 21 $1,332 −$104 -8%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-9.5) Mar 19 $957 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $1,325 −$1,325 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 16 $450 −$450 -100%
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns Mar 16 $92 −$92 -100%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 16 $132 −$131 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 16? Mar 16 $5,768 +$2,797 +48%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 24? Mar 16 $31,046 +$16,984 +55%
Bitcoin ETF Flows on February 26? Mar 16 $594 +$2,652 +446%
Ethereum ETF Flows on February 26? Mar 16 $41,588 +$218,346 +525%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 13? Mar 16 $734 +$436 +59%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 19? Mar 16 $2,262 +$2,406 +106%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 31? Mar 16 $8,880 +$5,539 +62%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 17? Mar 16 $14,614 +$11,335 +78%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 12? Mar 16 $6,790 +$6,225 +92%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 10? Mar 16 $23,576 +$34,852 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$80,597
crypto 29% +$221,035
sports 5% −$1,292
economics 1% −$1,775
politics 1% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $278 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $67 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 96¢ $41 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 89¢ $37 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 69¢ $38 61d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $282 61d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $969 62d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $473 62d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $36 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $179 80d
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,865 81d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 81¢ $97 81d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 78¢ $23 81d
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones SELL Kentucky Wildcats 32¢ $18 81d
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Kentucky Wildcats 33¢ $4 81d
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Kentucky Wildcats 33¢ $5 81d
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Kentucky Wildcats 33¢ $10 81d
Nets vs. Kings BUY Kings 66¢ $10 81d
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons BUY Wake Forest Demon Deacons 75¢ $11 82d
Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,096 82d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Lakers 59¢ $9 82d
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans BUY Michigan State Spartans 65¢ $6 82d
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 84¢ $103 82d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 88¢ $18 82d
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators SELL Florida Gators 83¢ $1,235 83d
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators BUY Florida Gators 83¢ $1,235 83d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-9.5) SELL Texas A&M Aggies 44¢ $333 83d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-9.5) SELL Texas A&M Aggies 44¢ $160 83d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-9.5) SELL Texas A&M Aggies 46¢ $1 83d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-9.5) SELL Texas A&M Aggies 46¢ $7 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 1 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 33 +40.2% +26.8% 67% 61% +178.4%
all 33 +40.2% +26.8% 67% 61% +178.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.8% 61% +178.4%
10% ← realistic here +14.7% 55% +151.7%
15% +3.6% 45% +127.4%
20% -6.5% 39% +105.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,750.55 · official $1,750.55 (match) · 469 history records