Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbed…b117 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$2
other 20% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 2% −$2
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -1.6% -11.0% 39% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage453d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $8 $0 -4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $37 +$2 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $33 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 16 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will 'Mononoke The Movie: The Phantom in the Rain' win Crunchyroll's F May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 20 $1 $0 -16%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by Friday? May 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $8 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $8 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $18 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $15 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $25 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $38 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $38 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $35 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.37 · official $3.70 (match) · 96 history records