Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:48:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcbe8…97ef
crypto · 79 markets active 3h ago
7.5score
+$11 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses48 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 2 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Man Vs. Baby" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$2 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -89%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 22 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 21 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 21 $1 +$3 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 21 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +127%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for May 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 18 $9 −$1 -10%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs LGD NBW (BO7) - Honor of Kings Challenger Cu May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs AG Super Play (BO7) - Honor of Kings Chal May 18 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +18%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? Apr 06 $1 $0 -7%
Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 06 $1 $0 +20%
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on Ma Apr 06 $1 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +41%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Apr 06 $1 +$1 +37%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $1 $0 -19%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 04 $2 $0 +19%
Taylor Swift pregnant by March 31? Mar 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February Feb 24 $3 $0 +16%
Will Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley be the #1 song on US Spotify this w Feb 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Feb 08 $5 $0 +6%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January Feb 02 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 26% +$4
crypto 23% +$8
other 19% +$1
tech 14% −$1
sports 8% −$11
politics 5% +$10
economics 4% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.4% +31.6% 75% 75% +32.1%
≤30d 34 +28.9% +16.6% 56% 50% +2.4%
≤90d 41 +24.7% +12.8% 59% 54% +0.1%
all 77 +16.8% +5.7% 62% 42% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 42% -5.0%
10% -4.4% 32% -14.1%
15% -13.7% 26% -22.4%
20% -22.1% 22% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $2.08 (match) · 157 history records