Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcbe7…952b crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$138 (+16%) realized +$139 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$70
other 11% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +18.1% +6.9% 51% 51% +0.4%
≤30d 41 +18.1% +6.9% 51% 51% +0.4%
≤90d 41 +18.1% +6.9% 51% 51% +0.4%
all 41 +18.1% +6.9% 51% 51% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 51% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 46% -9.2%
15% -12.7% 39% -18.0%
20% -21.3% 32% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$139
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$15 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $82 −$60 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$18 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$31 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$25 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$11 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$57 +1062%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Jun 24 $25 +$12 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.41 · official $69.41 (match) · 97 history records