Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbe4…ee11 world 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11,103 (-47%) realized −$9,251 · open −$1,852
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%16W / 45L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$871now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$278
14 days−$4,327
30 days−$4,327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$11,536
sports 4% −$64
economics 3% −$37
crypto 3% −$49
other 2% +$276
politics 1% +$444
culture 0% −$29
finance 0% −$46
tech 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.2% -52.2% 0% 0% -42.8%
≤30d 4 -39.9% -45.6% 0% 0% -58.5%
≤90d 35 -42.2% -47.7% 11% 11% -66.2%
all 61 -11.9% -20.3% 26% 25% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 25% -50.6%
10% -27.9% 20% -55.3%
15% -34.9% 20% -59.7%
20% -41.3% 18% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$239 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$871
Realized−$9,251
Unrealized−$1,852
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses16 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage110d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2,724 $871 −$1,852 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $66 −$39 -60%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $689 −$238 -35%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 12 $6,454 −$4,027 -62%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $789 −$22 -3%
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference? Apr 21 $351 −$351 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $625 −$625 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $22 +$3 +13%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $28 +$60 +216%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $10 +$18 +178%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $36 +$31 +86%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $11 −$4 -38%
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Apr 08 $25 −$20 -79%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $4 $0 -12%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Apr 08 $13 −$12 -91%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Apr 08 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 08 $80 −$49 -61%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Apr 08 $240 −$150 -62%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 08 $1,278 −$969 -76%
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? Apr 07 $37 −$11 -29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $116 −$116 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 29 $45 −$6 -13%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Mar 29 $14 −$7 -51%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $284 −$281 -99%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $71 −$59 -83%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 29 $25 −$10 -40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $29 −$6 -20%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 29 $80 −$29 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 29 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 29 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $8 −$7 -90%
Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -91%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $100 −$33 -33%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $1,289 −$1,051 -82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $120 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $300 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Mar 19 $600 −$103 -17%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 19 $80 +$10 +13%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $145 +$59 +41%
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference? Mar 18 $328 +$365 +111%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $50 +$31 +61%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 18 $160 +$462 +289%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $25 +$51 +203%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $25 +$107 +426%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 17 $27 +$28 +102%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 16 $400 −$55 -14%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 16 $800 −$349 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $449 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 4d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 27¢ $27 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2,248 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $451 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $689 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $688 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $167 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 60¢ $767 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 74¢ $264 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 52¢ $354 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $91 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $528 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $339 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $565 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $626 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $926 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $248 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $167 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,502 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,501 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $561 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $681 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $511 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $835 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $65 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $871.46 · official $871.46 (match) · 202 history records