Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcbde…8f8a crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,337 (+49%) realized +$1,219 · open +$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$1,308
crypto 31% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +17.7% +6.5% 100% 25% +36.0%
≤30d 8 +17.7% +6.5% 100% 25% +36.0%
≤90d 8 +17.7% +6.5% 100% 25% +36.0%
all 8 +17.7% +6.5% 100% 25% +36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 25% +36.0%
10% -3.7% 25% +23.0%
15% -13.0% 25% +11.1%
20% -21.5% 25% +0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$164 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$1,219
Unrealized+$118
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 0¢ 94¢ $0 $118 +$118 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $122 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $815 +$483 +59%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $1,072 +$825 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $83 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $55 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $1,298 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $815 10h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $1,898 10h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $1,072 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.12 · official $104.38 · 24 history records