Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbdb…7f58 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$136 (-23%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$41
sports 24% +$2
other 14% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -38.6% -44.5% 25% 25% -28.8%
≤30d 20 -38.6% -44.5% 25% 25% -28.8%
≤90d 20 -38.6% -44.5% 25% 25% -28.8%
all 20 -38.6% -44.5% 25% 25% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.5% 25% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 25% -35.6%
15% -54.7% 20% -41.8%
20% -59.1% 15% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -86% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$24 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$96 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $22 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$46 -95%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $51 +$72 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$21 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$55 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $18 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $34 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $37 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $30 9m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $38 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $21 17m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $22 24m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 99¢ $123 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 40¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $7 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 27¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records