Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbda…bc59 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$58 (+17%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$19
sports 18% +$73
crypto 14% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.8% -13.0% 40% 40% -1.9%
≤30d 15 -3.8% -13.0% 40% 40% -1.9%
≤90d 15 -3.8% -13.0% 40% 40% -1.9%
all 15 -3.8% -13.0% 40% 40% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 40% -1.9%
10% -21.3% 40% -11.3%
15% -28.9% 27% -19.9%
20% -35.9% 13% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$48 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $87 +$27 +31%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 4m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $68 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up $27 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $3 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.16 · official $59.29 (match) · 34 history records