Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcbd7…e13c other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$1
politics 26% −$7
sports 4% +$56
culture 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.3% +3.4% 14% 14% -9.2%
≤30d 19 +5.2% -4.8% 16% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 104 +4.5% -5.4% 12% 10% -9.4%
all 109 +4.7% -5.3% 14% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 10% -9.3%
10% -14.3% 10% -18.0%
15% -22.6% 10% -25.9%
20% -30.2% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×11.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage97d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $141 $141 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $507 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $8 +$8 +101%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $92 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $225 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $611 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $212 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $230 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $219 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $234 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $219 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $236 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $235 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $226 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $453 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $437 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 6h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 27h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 30h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $8 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 8d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $141 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 17d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 19d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 19d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.98 · official $211.98 (match) · 322 history records