Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbd3…5dfa other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,090 (-1%) realized −$1,090 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate27%37W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$813per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$18
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$262
politics 32% −$43
sports 20% −$757
culture 5% −$5
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$33
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -9.4% -18.0% 8% 3% -11.1%
all 138 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 9% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -10.4%
10% -18.1% 9% -19.0%
15% -26.0% 7% -26.8%
20% -33.3% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,136) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$812
Realized−$1,090
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses37 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage141d
Avg bet$813
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $597 $597 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $215 $215 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,259 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $964 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $939 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,945 −$4 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $451 +$1 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $416 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3,310 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $721 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $539 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $863 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,166 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 04 $612 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 27 $376 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,499 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,076 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,684 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,198 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,946 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $2,094 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $597 26h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $823 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $824 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $961 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $963 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $962 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $964 5d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $861 6d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $862 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $947 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $948 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $819 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $820 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $913 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $914 10d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $998 11d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $999 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $938 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $939 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $932 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $933 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,086 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,087 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $962 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $963 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $985 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $987 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.19 · official $812.19 (match) · 416 history records