Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbd1…e58a other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-6%) realized −$25 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$123
14 days−$123
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$176
sports 5% −$7
crypto 3% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 40% -17.2%
≤30d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 40% -17.2%
≤90d 24 -13.5% -21.7% 33% 33% -17.8%
all 24 -13.5% -21.7% 33% 33% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 33% -17.8%
10% -29.2% 29% -25.6%
15% -36.0% 25% -32.8%
20% -42.3% 21% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 33
History coverage56d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 78¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $94 −$10 -11%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $35 +$17 +48%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $118 −$13 -11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $131 −$42 -32%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$1 -14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 26 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $56 +$30 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $723 −$199 -28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $105 +$111 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$7 -23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $55 +$18 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 02 $3 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 78¢ $68 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 46¢ $61 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3h
England leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY $1 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will BUY 35¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $46 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 80¢ $53 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND BUY 10¢ $5 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND BUY 31¢ $5 28h
Agustín Canobbio: 1+ shots on target AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 22¢ $5 28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AN BUY 11¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 14¢ $45 39h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $5 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $37 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 110 history records