Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcbd1…e0cc crypto 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$35 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%91W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$157
14 days+$152
30 days+$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$230
sports 22% +$197
other 15% +$200
world 8% −$215
politics 1% −$15
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +71.9% +55.5% 100% 100% +60.5%
≤30d 14 +183.1% +156.1% 64% 57% +41.0%
≤90d 40 +73.3% +56.8% 70% 60% +6.6%
all 149 +19.5% +8.1% 61% 56% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 56% -10.8%
10% -2.2% 44% -19.4%
15% -11.7% 34% -27.1%
20% -20.3% 20% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$43 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses91 / 58
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)149 / 154
History coverage113d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$44 +86%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$18 +37%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$95 +93%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $102 −$12 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $50 +$39 +78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 20 $52 −$10 -20%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $5 +$245 +4757%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 +$49 +474%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $100 +$47 +47%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 17 $31 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 17 $26 +$17 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 17 $21 +$18 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 17 $3 +$6 +197%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 17 $35 +$24 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 31 $12 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 31 $20 +$14 +71%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Mar 31 $100 −$99 -99%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 27 $125 −$14 -11%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 26 $100 +$43 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 26 $40 −$15 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 25 $3 +$1 +27%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $39 +$12 +30%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $75 +$28 +37%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 24 $24 +$15 +64%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $50 +$24 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 22 $25 +$5 +22%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 22 $45 +$22 +49%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 17 $50 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Mar 07 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 07 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 07 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 07 $100 −$3 -3%
Will South Africa win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 07 $125 −$125 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Mar 07 $50 +$24 +47%
Pelicans vs. Suns Mar 07 $50 +$31 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $68 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $43 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $66 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 28¢ $46 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $17 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $47 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 24d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 27d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 30¢ $59 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $25 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $20 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $21 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 32¢ $20 29d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 5¢ $5 29d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 29d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 29d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 2¢ $5 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 17¢ $10 29d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 41¢ $28 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.20 · official $190.21 (match) · 404 history records