Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcbcc…edc9 sports 1484 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,899 (-3%) realized −$6,899 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%876W / 701L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$840est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 163d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$4,712
crypto 6% −$495
other 2% −$379
world 0% −$67
tech 0% −$8
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -72.1% -74.7% 19% 16% -95.3%
≤30d 325 -33.3% -39.7% 37% 35% -75.1%
≤90d 854 -18.3% -26.0% 46% 41% -22.0%
all 1577 -10.7% -19.2% 56% 38% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 38% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 28% -22.6%
15% -34.0% 20% -30.0%
20% -40.4% 12% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$58 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses876 / 701
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$840
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1577 / 1484
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$179
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1577 Trades
no open positions (380 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hawks vs. Nets Jun 29 $20 −$40 -200%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Clippers vs. Hawks Jun 29 $100 −$200 -200%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Jun 29 $50 −$100 -200%
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jun 29 $141 −$141 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Cavaliers Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Pistons vs. Clippers Jun 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump disparage Ahmed al-Sharaa on Monday? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-7.5) Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Suns vs. Wizards Jun 29 $25 −$29 -117%
Cavaliers vs. Rockets Jun 29 $50 −$49 -99%
Nets vs. Mavericks Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Heat vs. Spurs Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. 76ers Jun 29 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jun 29 $12 −$243 -2055%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Pacers Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Hornets Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Jun 29 $210 −$210 -100%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jun 29 $305 −$305 -100%
Knicks vs. Suns Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Hawks vs. Suns Jun 29 $413 −$413 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Jun 29 $50 −$60 -119%
Jazz vs. Suns Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Celtics vs. Jazz Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Capitals vs. Panthers Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pacers Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 63¢ $21 1h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom SELL San Francisco Unicorns 96¢ $21 19h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom BUY San Francisco Unicorns 70¢ $16 19h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom SELL Washington Freedom 35¢ $6 19h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 59¢ $10 20h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 100¢ $16 21h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $10 21h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom SELL San Francisco Unicorns 50¢ $10 21h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom BUY San Francisco Unicorns 49¢ $5 22h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom BUY San Francisco Unicorns 49¢ $5 22h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $43 22h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 78¢ $22 23h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 57¢ $22 23h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 66¢ $26 24h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 65¢ $10 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 30h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings SELL Washington Freedom 81¢ $25 43h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 43h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Washington Freedom 63¢ $20 44h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 44h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Mi New York 91¢ $25 46h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Mi New York 59¢ $16 47h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Phoenix Mercury 96¢ $16 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Phoenix Mercury 68¢ $12 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 52¢ $1 2d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 74¢ $11 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Atlanta Dream 54¢ $1 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records