Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CB 0xcbcb…e7da other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$349 (+8%) realized +$346 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%31W / 10L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$115
14 days+$111
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$175
finance 40% +$215
politics 4% +$4
weather 3% −$48
economics 1% +$2
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 43% -3.9%
≤30d 9 +1.9% -7.8% 89% 44% -2.1%
≤90d 34 -10.2% -18.7% 74% 26% -2.7%
all 41 -7.0% -15.9% 76% 29% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 29% -2.7%
10% -23.9% 12% -12.0%
15% -31.3% 5% -20.5%
20% -38.0% 5% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.86 per $1 lost it wins $4.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$346
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses31 / 10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage170d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? No 93¢ 100¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 92¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+130%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $38 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $35 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $26 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $478 +$22 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,199 +$74 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 30 $1,014 +$123 +12%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after May 04 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? May 02 $100 +$8 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 02 $100 +$26 +26%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 02 $337 +$13 +4%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti Apr 30 $94 +$6 +6%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 29 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $7 −$4 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 12? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 11? Apr 12 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 11? Apr 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $145 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on April 10? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on April 10? Apr 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 9? Apr 10 $35 −$32 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 9? Apr 09 $15 −$10 -65%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 9? Apr 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 9? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 9? Apr 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 8? Apr 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $90 +$21 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $83 +$55 +67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 09 $101 −$19 -18%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 28 $75 +$26 +35%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 02 $65 +$10 +15%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meetin Jan 30 $57 +$9 +15%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $18 +$1 +4%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12? Jan 15 $18 +$1 +3%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 7? Jan 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 94¢ $38 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY No 88¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY No 88¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY No 88¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 85¢ $26 21h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $46 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $95 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $95 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $288 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,199 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 28d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 90¢ $402 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 90¢ $326 51d
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after SELL No 94¢ $98 51d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL Yes 93¢ $105 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 85¢ $111 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 87¢ $1 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 87¢ $86 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.40 · official $97.40 (match) · 127 history records