Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcbc6…0018 crypto 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$282 (-18%) realized −$280 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%76W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$148
other 48% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 157 -18.9% -26.6% 48% 46% -31.1%
≤90d 157 -18.9% -26.6% 48% 46% -31.1%
all 157 -18.9% -26.6% 48% 46% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 46% -31.1%
10% -33.6% 39% -37.7%
15% -40.1% 29% -43.7%
20% -45.9% 20% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$280
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses76 / 81
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage30d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +68%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +23%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 27 $5 +$4 +86%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 27 $5 +$5 +91%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $5 +$7 +129%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +36%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +40%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +34%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +60%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +34%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +36%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 27 $10 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 27 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 24d
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 24d
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 24d
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 24d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 24d
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 24d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 24d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 24d
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 24d
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24d
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.61 · official $197.61 (match) · 388 history records