Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcbc4…30ab crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized −$29 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day88.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$152
sports 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +11.6% +0.9% 56% 52% +1.5%
≤30d 27 +11.6% +0.9% 56% 52% +1.5%
≤90d 27 +11.6% +0.9% 56% 52% +1.5%
all 27 +11.6% +0.9% 56% 52% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.9% 52% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 41% -8.2%
15% -17.5% 41% -17.1%
20% -25.6% 37% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day88.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 20¢ 50¢ $25 $61 +$36 (+143%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$47 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $67 +$32 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$40 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$39 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$69 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$11 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$3 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$9 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$32 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$11 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$27 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$13 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 +$7 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $109 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $12 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $47 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $74 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $91 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $91 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $82 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $39 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.75 · official $60.75 (match) · 98 history records