Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcbbf…99c0 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$4
politics 30% +$3
other 14% +$2
culture 8% $0
crypto 7% +$1
tech 6% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 33% -7.7%
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 8% -8.6%
all 37 +1.0% -8.7% 30% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 8% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.39 per $1 lost it wins $7.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage333d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $74 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $45 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $47 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 23 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 23 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 22 $4 $0 -7%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3? Jul 22 $91 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 22 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jul 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 21 $81 $0 +0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 21 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $51 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $51 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $29 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $28 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 38h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $46 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $3 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $49 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $45 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $45 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $11 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $22 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $15 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $18 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $14 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.71 · official $46.71 (match) · 129 history records