Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcbbe…1f4a crypto 731 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,101 (+3%) realized +$1,492 · open −$391
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%403W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day104.7pace
Fees−$239est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$322
crypto 37% −$961
world 5% +$649
other 4% −$65
culture 0% +$5
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% +$12
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -67.2% -70.3% 21% 20% -55.5%
≤30d 645 -9.3% -17.9% 52% 42% -13.1%
≤90d 784 -8.3% -17.1% 51% 42% -13.0%
all 784 -8.3% -17.1% 51% 42% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 42% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 32% -21.3%
15% -32.3% 24% -28.9%
20% -38.9% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$991
Realized+$1,492
Unrealized−$391
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses403 / 381
Est. fees paid−$239
Open positions9
Markets (closed)784 / 731
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day104.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 60¢ 64¢ $280 $294 +$14 (+5%)
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 62¢ 90¢ $110 $161 +$51 (+46%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 75¢ 96¢ $110 $142 +$32 (+29%)
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Alina Korneeva 78¢ 71¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-9%)
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Zeynep Sonmez 72¢ 53¢ $160 $117 −$43 (-27%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Grigor Dimitrov 73¢ 46¢ $110 $70 −$40 (-36%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 49¢ 68¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+40%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 76¢ 0¢ $275 $0 −$275 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 64¢ 0¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 182 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Slovan Liberec vs. AC Sparta Praha end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$32 -390%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$24 -245%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$40 -293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$13 -13041%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Max Schoenhaus Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 52¢ $27 23m
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 77¢ $10 38m
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 78¢ $141 38m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 72¢ $161 38m
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 62¢ $111 38m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 49¢ $51 39m
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 73¢ $111 39m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 75¢ $111 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 41m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 39¢ $23 42m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 72¢ $8 42m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 70¢ $40 43m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 38¢ $10 43m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 38¢ $31 43m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $153 44m
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL X-CAST 100¢ $162 44m
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL Prestige 100¢ $184 44m
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva SELL Elizara Yaneva 100¢ $249 45m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 31¢ $5 1h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 79¢ $60 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 66¢ $17 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 73¢ $202 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $10 1h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 86¢ $150 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 72¢ $111 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $991.37 · official $991.37 (match) · 3500 history records