Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcbbd…a40e
politics · 42 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$20 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage494d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 3 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Blue Jays 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +30%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 +$3 +88%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Maduro out in 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +19%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? May 15 $1 $0 +28%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? May 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Oct 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $2 +$1 +24%
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Aug 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Aug 20 $1 $0 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 19 $4 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 19 $4 $0 +12%
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Aug 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 05 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? May 29 $2 +$2 +96%
Elon out of Trump administration in 2025? May 29 $3 +$6 +178%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Gold missing from Fort Knox? Mar 07 $3 −$1 -32%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 07 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Mar 07 $3 −$1 -32%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 07 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 10 $3 +$3 +110%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Feb 07 $3 −$2 -56%
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? Feb 07 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? Feb 04 $4 −$2 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 32% −$11
crypto 21% −$13
other 19% +$6
world 14% +$1
sports 5% −$4
tech 5% −$2
economics 2% +$2
culture 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 25h
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 25d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 26d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 26d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1 26d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 26d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 27d
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 27d
Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL RED Canids 100¢ $1 27d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 27d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 27d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY RED Canids 90¢ $1 27d
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 28d
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 210d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 210d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 72¢ $1 210d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 84¢ $1 210d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 210d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY No 78¢ $1 210d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 214d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 225d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 238d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.5% +3.6% 100% 100% +3.6%
≤30d 13 +9.0% -1.4% 77% 69% -21.2%
≤90d 13 +9.0% -1.4% 77% 69% -21.2%
all 39 -10.8% -19.3% 49% 44% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -26.0%
10% -27.0% 31% -33.1%
15% -34.1% 13% -39.5%
20% -40.5% 13% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.92 · official $1.92 (match) · 83 history records