Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcbbc…78a1 crypto 638 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,599 (+3%) realized +$4,599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate37%238W / 400L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$132
sports 4% +$728
other 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -2.0% -11.3% 28% 3% -9.5%
≤30d 458 +3.8% -6.0% 26% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 638 +2.5% -7.2% 37% 7% -9.2%
all 638 +2.5% -7.2% 37% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 7% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 5% -17.9%
15% -24.2% 4% -25.8%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$78 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses238 / 400
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions0
Markets (closed)638 / 638
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$252
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 638 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $686 +$277 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $305 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $302 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $321 −$26 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $369 −$48 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $403 −$34 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $401 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $401 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $401 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $394 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $410 −$30 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $410 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $408 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $408 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $408 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $404 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $395 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $395 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $395 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $390 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $383 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $358 +$24 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $358 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $358 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $358 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $358 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $355 +$3 +1%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $65 +$27 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $362 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $358 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $358 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $358 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $364 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $364 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $364 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $364 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $361 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $361 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $361 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $360 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $360 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $360 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $357 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $357 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $357 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $357 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $357 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $692 +$22 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $335 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $578 11m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $309 11m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $89 16m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $4 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $1 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $20 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $1 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $100 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $15 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $24 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $51 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $2 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $3 17m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $250 19m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $54 21m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $39 25m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $20 28m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $17 28m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $61 38m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $4 38m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $6 38m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $300 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $299 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records