Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbba…f46b crypto 886 markets active 7d ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (593 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$754 (+8%) realized +$754 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%522W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day593.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (593 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -75.7% -78.0% 14% 13% -71.2%
≤30d 1033 -11.1% -19.5% 51% 46% -15.9%
≤90d 1033 -11.1% -19.5% 51% 46% -15.9%
all 1033 -11.1% -19.5% 51% 46% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover593.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 46% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 36% -24.0%
15% -34.3% 21% -31.3%
20% -40.7% 11% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$754
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses522 / 511
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1033 / 886
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day593.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1033 Trades
no open positions (253 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.00 · official $133.00 (match) · 3500 history records