Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcbb7…b853 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+6%) realized −$32 · open +$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$162
14 days+$166
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$237
other 32% −$11
world 27% −$84
tech 6% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.5% +2.7% 70% 50% +15.7%
≤30d 32 -22.9% -30.2% 44% 38% -4.8%
≤90d 32 -22.9% -30.2% 44% 38% -4.8%
all 32 -22.9% -30.2% 44% 38% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 38% -4.8%
10% -36.9% 34% -13.9%
15% -43.0% 28% -22.2%
20% -48.6% 22% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions15
Markets (closed)32 / 47
History coverage46d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 89¢ $92 $152 +$60 (+65%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $97 $143 +$46 (+47%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+43%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 67¢ 93¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+39%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+74%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 59¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 36¢ 53¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 50¢ 31¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 4¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $130 +$9 +7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $145 +$13 +9%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $30 −$26 -86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $81 +$55 +67%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$22 +112%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$18 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $60 +$15 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 −$5 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $51 +$23 +46%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$18 -90%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 11 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -97%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $65 −$25 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $30 −$23 -77%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$11 +56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$9 -90%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $98 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $94 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $130 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $25 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 10h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 26h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $51 40h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 2d
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 91¢ $145 2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $81 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 5d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $30 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 8d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $4 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $4 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $10 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 10d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $20 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $15 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.60 · official $561.15 · 129 history records