Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcbb7…74e8 crypto 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$31 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate86%163W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$46
sports 13% +$28
economics 10% −$7
crypto 7% −$108
politics 0% +$88
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 190 +2.3% -7.5% 86% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 9% -9.6%
10% -16.3% 8% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 6% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses163 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)190 / 192
History coverage591d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $70 $62 −$8 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? May 06 $35 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 9-15? Apr 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 11? Mar 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 09 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? Feb 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $80 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 08 $6 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $40 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14? Jan 08 $56 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 December 1-7? Dec 09 $25 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 December 1-7? Dec 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? Dec 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 03 $40 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 03 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Nov 26 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 4? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 4? Nov 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 03 $45 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 October 6-12? Oct 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.70 October 6-12? Oct 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12? Oct 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12? Oct 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 3? Oct 06 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Solana dip to $160 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.40 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 19? Oct 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.40 in September? Oct 03 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $60 +$2 +4%
Will Solana reach $280 September 8–14? Sep 19 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $22 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? BUY No 100¢ $46 48d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $35 77d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $60 77d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $40 101d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 105d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $40 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 105d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $84 118d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $80 140d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $60 140d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 99¢ $23 165d
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $40 165d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $80 165d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $56 195d
Ethereum all time high by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $6 201d
Will XRP reach $2.70 December 1-7? BUY No 98¢ $25 201d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $30 201d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $40 201d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $40 201d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? BUY No 99¢ $31 209d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? BUY No 99¢ $31 211d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 231d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 4? BUY No 100¢ $20 231d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 99¢ $40 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.34 · official $132.34 (match) · 403 history records