trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 63¢ | 62¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | Over | 43¢ | 42¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? | Yes | 11¢ | 9¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-18%) |
| Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $6 | +$7 | +114% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 | Jun 12 | $5 | +$10 | +188% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Jun 12 | $10 | +$7 | +73% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | Feb 06 | $20 | +$6 | +30% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | Feb 06 | $40 | +$11 | +28% |
| Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? | Feb 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? | Feb 01 | $17 | +$6 | +35% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | Feb 01 | $22 | +$18 | +78% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 31 | $15 | +$3 | +20% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4? | Jan 05 | $19 | +$4 | +21% |
| Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? | Jan 02 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +68.9% | +52.8% | 75% | 75% | +83.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +68.9% | +52.8% | 75% | 75% | +83.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +68.9% | +52.8% | 75% | 75% | +83.6% |
| all | 12 | +32.4% | +19.8% | 83% | 75% | +26.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +19.8% | 75% | +26.4% |
| 10% | +8.3% | 58% | +14.3% |
| 15% | -2.2% | 33% | +3.3% |
| 20% | -11.8% | 33% | -6.8% |