Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcbb5…5ed9 sports 1158 markets active 12h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10,333 (+1%) realized +$9,910 · open +$423
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%671W / 452L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$807per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1,870est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$23,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,077
7 days−$150
14 days+$810
30 days+$4,756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$8,294
other 24% +$512
culture 2% −$814
politics 1% −$1,334
world 0% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +110.4% +90.4% 65% 65% -10.7%
≤30d 53 +51.6% +37.2% 66% 64% -5.1%
≤90d 237 +57.3% +42.3% 64% 57% -6.3%
all 1123 +13.2% +2.4% 60% 54% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 54% -8.9%
10% -7.4% 43% -17.6%
15% -16.4% 31% -25.6%
20% -24.6% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$385 vs −$559 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$23,011
Realized+$9,910
Unrealized+$423
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses671 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,870
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1123 / 1158
History coverage416d
Avg bet$807
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $2,400 $2,442 +$42 (+2%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $2,301 $2,307 +$6 (+0%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,157 $2,144 −$13 (-1%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? No 36¢ 40¢ $1,807 $2,015 +$208 (+12%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 64¢ $2,000 $1,957 −$43 (-2%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 64¢ 66¢ $1,500 $1,559 +$59 (+4%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $1,400 $1,449 +$49 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 85¢ $1,300 $1,331 +$31 (+2%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 82¢ $1,000 $1,025 +$25 (+3%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 16¢ 20¢ $693 $899 +$206 (+30%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 31¢ 43¢ $517 $723 +$205 (+40%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 80¢ $722 $707 −$15 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $664 $680 +$16 (+2%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 96¢ $502 $519 +$17 (+3%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 78¢ 72¢ $550 $511 −$39 (-7%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $530 $478 −$52 (-10%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $460 $461 +$1 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $431 $423 −$8 (-2%)
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 10¢ $400 $290 −$110 (-28%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 78¢ $277 $268 −$9 (-3%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 33¢ 44¢ $155 $207 +$52 (+33%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $195 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 26¢ $117 $135 +$18 (+15%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 70¢ $132 $129 −$3 (-2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 77¢ 99¢ $61 $78 +$17 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 378 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $665 −$658 -99%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $1,905 +$565 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $130 +$36 +27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,318 +$1,135 +86%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13,482 +$1,500 +11%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $806 +$271 +34%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $303 +$166 +55%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,105 −$2,083 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 +$60 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $144 +$33 +23%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 +$210 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2,423 −$2,400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,381 +$1,416 +60%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $203 $0 -0%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $409 −$400 -98%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 10 $708 +$302 +43%
Game Handicap: VP.P (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5) Jun 08 $591 −$580 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $890 +$602 +68%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 08 $1,428 +$484 +34%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,517 +$902 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $192 +$69 +36%
Will LGD Gaming win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $1,705 +$195 +11%
Will Aurora win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $1,083 +$117 +11%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $927 +$651 +70%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 06 $2,177 +$1,447 +66%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,621 −$1,600 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $161 +$225 +140%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1,577 −$1,552 -98%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 02 $353 +$114 +32%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $1,161 +$922 +79%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 02 $2,194 +$1,097 +50%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $1,067 −$1,050 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 31 $172 +$154 +90%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 31 $2,403 +$1,124 +47%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 31 $1,695 +$2,818 +166%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 30 $2,120 −$2,100 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? May 30 $442 −$440 -100%
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 27 $135 +$160 +118%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $743 +$3,073 +414%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) May 26 $1,313 −$1,292 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 26 $3,062 −$3,027 -99%
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmark May 24 $495 −$488 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 24 $2,267 +$1,133 +50%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $1,629 +$2,318 +142%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) May 22 $2,971 −$2,941 -99%
Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) May 21 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 21 $2,000 +$532 +27%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $17,965 +$263 +2%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 21 $3,341 +$576 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 81¢ $553 11h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $1,516 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $665 18h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY No 37¢ $524 18h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY No 36¢ $153 19h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $120 27h
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $914 27h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $130 30h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY No 35¢ $1,165 39h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 12¢ $205 43h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 13¢ $53 43h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $1,010 44h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 53¢ $1,318 44h
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $187 44h
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $432 44h
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1,006 44h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $1,010 44h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $133 2d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $633 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 54¢ $466 2d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 64¢ $222 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $220 2d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 64¢ $874 2d
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? SELL No 70¢ $292 2d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 65¢ $1,008 3d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 64¢ $303 3d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 64¢ $303 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,312 3d
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY No 73¢ $1,028 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $527 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,011.45 · official $23,010.12 (match) · 2976 history records