Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcbb0…e0b0 crypto 846 markets active 14h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$130 (-1%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate86%731W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$12
14 days+$60
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$207
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -1.8% -11.1% 90% 19% -8.1%
≤30d 283 +1.3% -8.4% 91% 23% -7.8%
≤90d 816 -1.6% -11.0% 87% 36% -11.6%
all 846 -2.1% -11.4% 86% 37% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 37% -11.1%
10% -19.9% 9% -19.6%
15% -27.6% 2% -27.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses731 / 115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)846 / 846
History coverage99d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 846 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$3 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$3 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 14h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 41h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 41h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $22 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 46h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $3 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $19 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $19 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 1860 history records