Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbae…5ae5 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-6%) realized −$74 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$66
14 days−$40
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$8
sports 21% −$46
crypto 9% −$67
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -52.2% -56.8% 12% 12% -32.0%
≤30d 43 -27.0% -33.9% 26% 26% -22.0%
≤90d 43 -27.0% -33.9% 26% 26% -22.0%
all 43 -27.0% -33.9% 26% 26% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 26% -22.0%
10% -40.3% 26% -29.5%
15% -46.0% 26% -36.3%
20% -51.3% 21% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)43 / 53
History coverage29d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $255 $297 +$42 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $252 $205 −$47 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $170 $189 +$19 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $145 $107 −$38 (-26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+34%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 +$71 +468%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -10%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -87%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$45 +220%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$10 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -91%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$3 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$9 -43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 −$21 -70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $56 +$29 +53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $20 +$10 +50%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $52 −$24 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 27 $52 −$10 -20%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $20 +$12 +57%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $15 +$13 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 26m
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 28m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 28m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $42 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $15 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 39h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $5 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 6d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 32¢ $8 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $9 7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $22 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.76 · official $893.91 (match) · 137 history records