Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcbad…c86e crypto 369 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$381 (-8%) realized −$362 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%111W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$310
7 days+$420
14 days+$420
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$603
world 39% +$99
politics 7% −$169
sports 6% +$375
other 6% −$166
tech 2% −$5
economics 1% −$9
culture 1% +$10
weather 1% −$15
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2000.0% +1800.0% 100% 100% +1800.0%
≤30d 25 +147.0% +123.5% 44% 28% +6.1%
≤90d 309 -23.2% -30.5% 27% 20% -20.2%
all 363 -22.4% -29.8% 31% 24% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 24% -21.5%
10% -36.5% 19% -29.0%
15% -42.6% 14% -35.8%
20% -48.3% 11% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses111 / 252
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions9
Markets (closed)363 / 369
History coverage154d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-67%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $13 +$310 +2388%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $1 +$110 +9151%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 26 $61 −$59 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 21? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 24 $132 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 20? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 20? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 24 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 24 $159 −$60 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 24 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 24 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 23 $53 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 23 $53 +$26 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 23 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 23 $26 +$27 +103%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $208 +$307 +148%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 7? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 7? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 7? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $19 +$82 +442%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 07 $14 −$18 -131%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 07 $0 +$5 +2307%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7? May 07 $0 $0 -63%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 07 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 5? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 5? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 27-May 3? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 4? May 04 $1 $0 -17%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? May 04 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 27-May 3? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 4? May 04 $1 +$1 +130%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 4? May 04 $1 $0 +10%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 May 02 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 01 $0 $0 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 48¢ $34 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 49¢ $46 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 48¢ $81 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 50¢ $66 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 50¢ $45 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 39¢ $109 3d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 20d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 20d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 20d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 2113 history records