Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcbab…d156 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,528 (+10%) realized +$1,254 · open +$274
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$258
7 days+$1,066
14 days+$1,066
30 days+$761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$629
other 23% +$578
crypto 2% −$330
finance 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 50% +15.7%
≤30d 9 -14.4% -22.5% 44% 33% +4.0%
≤90d 20 -13.5% -21.7% 45% 40% -7.1%
all 35 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 43% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 43% -5.7%
10% -22.1% 40% -14.7%
15% -29.6% 40% -23.0%
20% -36.5% 40% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$330 vs −$312 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1,162
Realized+$1,254
Unrealized+$274
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage107d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 58¢ 100¢ $348 $600 +$252 (+72%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 58¢ 60¢ $290 $298 +$8 (+3%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $250 $265 +$15 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $526 −$24 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $746 −$559 -75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,120 +$880 +79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 14 $122 +$17 +14%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,274 +$790 +62%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $626 +$25 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 Jun 05 $302 −$302 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $325 −$28 -9%
Panthers vs. Rangers Mar 30 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-03-29? Mar 30 $414 +$326 +79%
Wild vs. Bruins Mar 29 $312 +$338 +108%
Stars vs. Penguins Mar 29 $375 +$295 +79%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights Mar 29 $412 −$412 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $301 +$399 +133%
Kings vs. Canucks Mar 27 $508 +$312 +61%
Senators vs. Red Wings Mar 25 $355 −$355 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-21? Mar 25 $305 −$305 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders Mar 25 $479 −$479 -100%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-12? Mar 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Sharks vs. Bruins Mar 21 $295 −$295 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 21 $326 −$326 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 21 $390 −$390 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 21 $982 −$982 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $628 +$353 +56%
Penguins vs. Golden Knights Mar 13 $383 +$245 +64%
Blue Jackets vs. Panthers Mar 13 $192 +$191 +100%
KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Mar 12 $108 +$4 +4%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $663 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $337 +$323 +96%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 11 $384 +$816 +212%
Avalanche vs. Stars Mar 07 $362 +$308 +85%
Islanders vs. Kings Mar 06 $362 +$308 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $294 37m
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $116 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $60 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $172 14h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $95 17h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $330 17h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $158 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 35¢ $17 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 35¢ $12 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 35¢ $158 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $68 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $10 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $7 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $0 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $0 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $0 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $0 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $0 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $0 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $0 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $260 41h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $125 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $396 3d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $71 4d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $460 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,162.20 · official $1,162.20 (match) · 261 history records