Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcba9…bc31 politics 124 markets active 4h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 112L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$15
politics 44% −$16
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
sports 2% +$70
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -0.6% -10.1% 4% 2% -9.6%
all 123 +3.5% -6.3% 9% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 7% -9.4%
10% -15.3% 7% -18.1%
15% -23.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -31.0% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×14.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 112
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage115d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $276 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $267 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $297 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $217 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 25 $245 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $400 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $194 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $245 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $426 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $217 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $249 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $220 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 02 $388 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $219 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $261 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $244 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 4h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $39 10h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $39 20h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 23h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 29h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 29h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 32h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 32h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 11d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 18d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $21 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 18d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 20d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 20d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $251 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 367 history records