Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcba9…f812
other · 18 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$384 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$656 · open −$273
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$570
Realized+$656
Unrealized−$273
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%
Chart Positions 5 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$656
7 days+$656
14 days+$656
30 days+$656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $330 $334 +$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $98 $89 −$9 (-9%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $88 $78 −$10 (-12%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $88 $70 −$18 (-21%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 36¢ $239 $0 −$239 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 10¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 10¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 20¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 10¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 16¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 28¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ $238 $0 −$238 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $114 +$541 +475%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $68 −$66 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $83 −$80 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $565 +$810 +143%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $217 +$410 +189%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $245 −$238 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $206 −$200 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% +$312
sports 46% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $91 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $91 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $91 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $339 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 99¢ $655 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $205 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $91 6h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $68 13h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $83 13h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 13h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $565 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $565 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $245 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 28¢ $103 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 28¢ $62 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 21¢ $48 27h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes $21 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 28h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over $104 32h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $206 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.8% -22.9% 23% 23% +20.2%
≤30d 13 -14.8% -22.9% 23% 23% +20.2%
≤90d 13 -14.8% -22.9% 23% 23% +20.2%
all 13 -14.8% -22.9% 23% 23% +20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 23% +20.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 23% +8.7%
15% -37.0% 23% -1.8%
20% -43.2% 23% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.24 · official $570.24 (match) · 29 history records