Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CB 0xcba8…8cb2 other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$27
politics 21% −$6
economics 7% −$2
world 6% −$1
culture 5% −$2
sports 5% −$8
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 7% -9.7%
all 102 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 7% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage88d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $143 $143 +$0 (+0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ 46¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $412 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $280 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $458 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $246 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 10 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $227 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $230 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $242 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $253 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 19 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $250 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $492 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $486 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $676 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $256 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $13 4h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 21h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 24h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 41h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $143 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $29 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 10d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 17d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 17d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 19d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.88 · official $189.88 (match) · 291 history records