Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcba6…f550 politics 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+0%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$19
politics 42% −$25
sports 8% +$149
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 135 +8.5% -1.8% 9% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 7% -9.3%
10% -11.2% 7% -18.0%
15% -19.8% 5% -25.9%
20% -27.7% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×23.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage124d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $353 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $245 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $256 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $310 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $303 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 10 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $355 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $371 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $281 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $317 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $251 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $301 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $307 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $356 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $375 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $306 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $319 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $270 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 6h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 6h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 11d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 11d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 11d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 11d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $245 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $245 22d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $296 22d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $296 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $256 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $256 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $346 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $346 25d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $276 25d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $276 27d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $348 27d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $348 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $251 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 410 history records