Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcba5…cd88 sports 458 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,599 (-5%) realized −$24,629 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%239W / 216L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$992per market
Trades / day60.3pace
Fees−$6,649est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,476
7 days−$3,500
14 days−$5,406
30 days−$27,732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$22,390
other 8% −$3,202
world 1% −$2,558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 48% -11.7%
≤30d 434 -4.0% -13.1% 52% 45% -15.0%
≤90d 455 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 45% -15.0%
all 455 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 45% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 45% -15.0%
10% -21.5% 38% -23.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.0% 31% -30.5%
20% -36.0% 27% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,175) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$560 vs −$750 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$830
Realized−$24,629
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses239 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$6,649
Open positions3
Markets (closed)455 / 458
History coverage34d
Avg bet$992
Trades / day60.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $400 $603 +$203 (+51%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 48¢ 50¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 48¢ 5¢ $200 $21 −$179 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,011 +$536 +53%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $608 +$464 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $406 +$427 +105%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $706 +$258 +37%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $300 +$118 +40%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $302 +$162 +54%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $200 −$198 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $201 −$199 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $370 +$229 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,530 −$1,500 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $249 −$246 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,015 −$766 -76%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $202 +$131 +64%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1,118 −$1,100 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $507 +$389 +77%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $606 +$192 +32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $606 −$442 -73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $301 +$519 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,111 −$788 -71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $302 −$297 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $301 +$259 +86%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $711 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $304 −$15 -5%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $201 +$64 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $503 −$500 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,215 +$1,124 +92%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,116 −$1,100 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1,777 +$1,869 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $896 −$52 -6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $824 −$820 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $486 +$1,144 +235%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $694 −$686 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $511 −$21 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2,631 −$2,588 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $213 −$208 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $348 +$152 +44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $439 +$260 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $418 −$411 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $300 +$143 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $301 +$211 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $301 +$682 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $612 +$251 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $301 −$297 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $820 +$1,744 +213%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $805 +$194 +24%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,105 +$188 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4,349 −$3,799 -87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $2,301 −$1,602 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 40¢ $165 30m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $102 31m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 50¢ $304 35m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,546 44m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 66¢ $404 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 41¢ $102 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $203 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $406 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $606 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $964 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $706 5h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $608 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $406 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $419 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $465 10h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $200 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 65¢ $6 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 64¢ $285 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 65¢ $9 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 65¢ $2 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 71¢ $300 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $201 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1,530 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 59¢ $249 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $248 25h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $370 25h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $333 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $407 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $830.02 · official $614.86 · 2228 history records