Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcba3…6055 crypto 145 markets active 4h ago coverage 388d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 388d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,483 (+2%) realized +$2,132 · open +$351
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%51W / 101L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$870per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$1,927
crypto 25% +$872
economics 5% −$5,127
tech 1% −$976
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -64.2% -67.6% 25% 19% -35.9%
≤30d 41 -36.3% -42.4% 39% 27% -20.4%
≤90d 75 -42.7% -48.1% 36% 27% -19.2%
all 152 -28.3% -35.2% 34% 28% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 28% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 23% -25.3%
15% -47.0% 15% -32.5%
20% -52.2% 11% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$991) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$395 vs −$328 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$1,582
Realized+$2,132
Unrealized+$351
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 145
History coverage388d ⚠
Avg bet$870
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 49¢ 58¢ $980 $1,170 +$190 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $251 $412 +$161 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during next White Hous Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Karoline Leavitt say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during next White Hous Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Putin visit the U.S. before July? Jun 19 $37 −$410 -1116%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $403 −$403 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Jun 19 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tariff event on April 2? Jun 19 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Karoline Leavitt say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during next White Hous Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White Hous Jun 19 $1,332 −$1,332 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1,669 −$1,669 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,858 −$1,648 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $6,422 −$1,790 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $107 +$12 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3,468 +$1,160 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $481 −$418 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $2,996 +$935 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,982 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $13,978 −$4,785 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4,382 +$814 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $429 −$281 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10,933 −$88 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $158 −$63 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2,148 −$624 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $423 +$129 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $1,982 +$86 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $1,669 −$140 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $2,014 +$152 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3,485 +$1,434 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $4,573 +$1,114 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $380 −$165 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $1,235 +$355 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $360 −$282 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $961 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $132 −$109 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $49 +$19 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2,178 +$234 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,930 +$61 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $2,116 −$410 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $0 $0 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 19 $300 −$286 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,744 +$371 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1,723 +$15 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $105 +$37 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $1,299 +$178 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $212 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $76 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $295 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $16 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $686 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,581.95 · official $1,581.95 (match) · 3500 history records