Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcba1…0ee0 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.4% -18.0% 83% 33% -12.3%
≤30d 12 -9.4% -18.0% 83% 33% -12.3%
≤90d 12 -9.4% -18.0% 83% 33% -12.3%
all 12 -9.4% -18.0% 83% 33% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 33% -12.3%
10% -25.9% 8% -20.7%
15% -33.0% 0% -28.3%
20% -39.6% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records