Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CB 0xcba1…1734 other 519 markets active 0h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized −$3 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate82%423W / 92L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$99
14 days−$98
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$114
crypto 6% +$5
tech 5% −$79
sports 4% −$43
culture 2% +$3
weather 1% −$11
finance 1% +$14
politics 0% −$4
world 0% +$1
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 19% -14.9%
≤30d 109 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 19% -13.8%
≤90d 237 -2.8% -12.0% 78% 12% -9.5%
all 515 -1.0% -10.5% 82% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses423 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)515 / 519
History coverage183d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 75¢ 98¢ $32 $43 +$10 (+31%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Down 96¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$10 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $21 +$19 +87%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $11 +$42 +388%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $34 +$25 +73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 −$10 -34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 14 $49 −$8 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $26 +$4 +17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $32 +$17 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $35 +$8 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $11 +$10 +91%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 5m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 10m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 96¢ $9 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 96¢ $10 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 14h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 19h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $11 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $11 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $51 19h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $11 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $11 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $8 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $11 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $12 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $11 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.70 · official $163.62 (match) · 1387 history records