trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +41.3% | +27.8% | 100% | 100% | +27.8% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 75% | 75% | +4.9% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 67% | 67% | +6.6% |
| all | 21 | -11.1% | -19.6% | 62% | 52% | +0.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.6% | 52% | +0.9% |
| 10% | -27.3% | 29% | -8.8% |
| 15% | -34.3% | 10% | -17.6% |
| 20% | -40.8% | 0% | -25.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 95¢ | $1,100 | $1,693 | +$593 (+54%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1,400 | $1,545 | +$145 (+10%) |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 92¢ | $1,300 | $1,526 | +$226 (+17%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 82¢ | $580 | $574 | −$6 (-1%) |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 63¢ | 59¢ | $100 | $94 | −$6 (-6%) |
| Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $42 | $0 | −$42 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con | Jun 17 | $88 | +$37 | +41% |
| Will Tim Cook say "Gemini" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8t | Jun 08 | $202 | −$200 | -99% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | Jun 01 | $911 | +$265 | +29% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 01 | $1,008 | +$250 | +25% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Apr 09 | $200 | −$82 | -41% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 01 | $1,000 | +$336 | +34% |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Mar 19 | $72 | −$72 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Mar 19 | $58 | −$58 | -100% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 13? | Mar 14 | $1,400 | +$54 | +4% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru | Mar 02 | $600 | +$43 | +7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 02 | $2,570 | +$871 | +34% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Feb 14 | $300 | −$161 | -54% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 08 | $550 | −$297 | -54% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 03 | $500 | −$83 | -16% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 02 | $400 | +$49 | +12% |
| Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 02 | $2,200 | +$351 | +16% |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Jan 01 | $100 | +$11 | +11% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Jan 01 | $300 | +$111 | +37% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jan 01 | $800 | +$100 | +12% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Jan 01 | $1,200 | +$175 | +15% |
| Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Dec 17 | $75 | −$35 | -46% |