Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcb95…93f8 crypto 481 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$232 (-2%) realized −$227 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate37%175W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$46
14 days−$51
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$281
other 1% −$2
tech 0% −$7
world 0% −$7
politics 0% −$8
economics 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
culture 0% −$3
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 3% -10.4%
≤30d 150 -26.2% -33.2% 31% 5% -10.6%
≤90d 463 -32.3% -38.7% 37% 12% -11.6%
all 476 -31.3% -37.8% 37% 13% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 13% -11.6%
10% -43.8% 8% -20.1%
15% -49.2% 6% -27.8%
20% -54.2% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses175 / 301
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)476 / 481
History coverage100d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 476 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $269 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $816 −$1 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $298 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $297 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $195 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $389 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $184 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $75 −$14 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $79 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $191 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $95 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $66 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $72 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$19 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $64 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $181 +$9 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $186 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $435 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $44 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $699 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $117 −$3 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $57 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $44 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $294 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $394 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $288 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $396 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $100 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $7 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $1,860 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $70 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $64 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $38 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $40 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $13 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $90 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $1.08 (match) · 1661 history records