Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
CB 0xcb92…f93f other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+9%) realized +$25 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$25
sports 9% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -20.0% -27.6% 70% 30% +2.4%
≤30d 10 -20.0% -27.6% 70% 30% +2.4%
≤90d 10 -20.0% -27.6% 70% 30% +2.4%
all 10 -20.0% -27.6% 70% 30% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 30% +2.4%
10% -34.5% 10% -7.4%
15% -40.8% 10% -16.4%
20% -46.6% 0% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.45 per $1 lost it wins $8.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 73¢ 76¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $44 +$7 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $22 +$1 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +9%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 15m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 16m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $54 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $22 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $44 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 38h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $25 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.17 · official $127.17 (match) · 27 history records