Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb92…40c7 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$180 (+3%) realized +$212 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$23
14 days+$22
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$4
crypto 31% +$2
sports 10% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -70.2% -73.0% 12% 12% -8.2%
≤30d 35 -48.9% -53.7% 17% 11% -7.0%
≤90d 35 -48.9% -53.7% 17% 11% -7.0%
all 35 -48.9% -53.7% 17% 11% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.7% 11% -7.0%
10% -58.2% 11% -15.9%
15% -62.2% 9% -24.0%
20% -65.9% 6% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$2 · ×18.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.1 per $1 lost it wins $4.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage23d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 100¢ $163 $230 +$67 (+41%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $26 +$24 +92%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $17 +$5 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $40 +$50 +127%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $840 −$1 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $325 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $323 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $355 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $345 +$155 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $467 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $471 +$2 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $570 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $163 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up $0 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 26h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 42h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $15 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down $0 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up $0 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $17 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up $0 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $27 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down $0 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $40 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $325 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up $0 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up $0 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $325 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $325 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $325 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.94 · official $229.94 (match) · 73 history records