Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb92…4b43 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-5%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$3
other 26% −$38
politics 9% $0
finance 9% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +1.5% -8.2% 56% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 9 +1.5% -8.2% 56% 0% -8.7%
all 44 -4.1% -13.2% 39% 0% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -14.8%
10% -21.5% 0% -22.9%
15% -29.1% 0% -30.4%
20% -36.1% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage452d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $24 +$1 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $60 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $54 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 27 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20? Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
North Korea missile test by June 15? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 02 $7 $0 +6%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $6 $0 -3%
Dillon Danis x Gorilla fight scheduled by next Friday? May 08 $40 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 24 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $38 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $0 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $5 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $2 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $3 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $6 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $2 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $25 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $60 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $15 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $40 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.64 · official $60.57 (match) · 112 history records