Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb91…13d9 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$14
politics 32% −$11
sports 7% −$7
crypto 4% −$1
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 88 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage134d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $198 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $225 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $394 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $396 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $213 +$1 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $434 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $618 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $439 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $461 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $204 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $403 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $434 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $401 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $188 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 39h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $37 8d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $4 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $213 24d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $213 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $198 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $198 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $216 27d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $209 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $209 28d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 28d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 29d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 29d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 30d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $212 30d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $212 30d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $209 31d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $209 32d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $203 32d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 33d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $179 33d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $179 34d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $198 35d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $198 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records