Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb8f…55a7 sports 181 markets active 5d ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$209 (+12%) realized +$217 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%83W / 51L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days+$86
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$34
politics 29% +$66
other 24% +$106
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -3.2% -12.4% 49% 47% +4.3%
≤30d 122 +10.0% -0.5% 61% 60% +7.9%
≤90d 123 +11.4% +0.8% 62% 60% +11.6%
all 134 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 58% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 58% +5.6%
10% -9.9% 45% -4.5%
15% -18.6% 37% -13.7%
20% -26.6% 22% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$217
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses83 / 51
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions47
Markets (closed)134 / 181
History coverage552d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? No 76¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 80¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 78¢ 80¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 85¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? No 86¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 73¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
France leading at halftime? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 45¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 44¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$90 +874%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$6 -38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +26%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $9 +$4 +38%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$3 -36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +21%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 14 $9 +$2 +17%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $9 +$2 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +86%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $9 +$2 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$7 -52%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +42%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $3 +$2 +90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $13 +$6 +45%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$20 +197%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $14 −$8 -56%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $12 $0 +4%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $9 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $6 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $10 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 5d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 33¢ $5 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $6 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 70¢ $10 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Qatar 86¢ $9 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 5d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 26¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $10 5d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY No 72¢ $9 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $10 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 78¢ $9 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $8 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $9 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.47 · official $318.19 (match) · 337 history records