Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb8e…9bc1 crypto 65 markets active 2d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-10%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%28W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$12
politics 2% $0
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -40.7% -46.3% 33% 33% -44.2%
≤30d 49 -12.5% -20.8% 45% 43% -21.0%
≤90d 65 -16.7% -24.6% 43% 38% -22.5%
all 65 -16.7% -24.6% 43% 38% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 38% -22.5%
10% -31.8% 37% -29.9%
15% -38.4% 29% -36.7%
20% -44.5% 14% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses28 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2PM ET May 26 $1 $0 -21%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4AM ET May 26 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 25 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 25 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4AM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2AM ET May 21 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records