Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcb8b…6a25 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$102 (-15%) realized −$78 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$47
sports 22% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.6% -3.6% 75% 75% +17.1%
≤30d 4 +6.6% -3.6% 75% 75% +17.1%
≤90d 7 -39.1% -44.9% 43% 43% -51.8%
all 11 -16.8% -24.7% 45% 45% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 45% -29.6%
10% -31.9% 36% -36.3%
15% -38.5% 27% -42.4%
20% -44.5% 18% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$40 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage143d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $55 $43 −$12 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$14 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $42 +$28 +67%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $69 −$66 -95%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $28 −$28 -99%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Mexico Mar 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter Feb 21 $82 +$26 +32%
Will Seattle beat New England in Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $23 +$59 +257%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $58 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $52 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 43h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $70 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $42 2d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $69 31d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 31d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 69¢ $28 39d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 45d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 45d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 45d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 45d
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Mexico BUY Mexico 21¢ $15 99d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter SELL Yes 100¢ $108 115d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter BUY Yes 75¢ $82 116d
Will Seattle beat New England in Super Bowl LX? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 128d
Will Seattle beat New England in Super Bowl LX? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 143d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.42 · official $191.42 (match) · 66 history records