Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CB 0xcb87…12e6 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$17 (+7%) realized +$20 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+3.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+14.7%	+3.8%	100%	50%	+0.7%
≤30d	2	+14.7%	+3.8%	100%	50%	+0.7%
≤90d	2	+14.7%	+3.8%	100%	50%	+0.7%
all	2	+14.7%	+3.8%	100%	50%	+0.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.8%	50%	+0.7%
10%	-6.1%	0%	-8.9%
15%	-15.2%	0%	-17.7%
20%	-23.5%	0%	-25.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$102

Realized+$20

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)2 / 7

History coverage16d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	59¢	60¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	79¢	80¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	88¢	95¢	$15	$16	+$1 (+8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	59¢	46¢	$20	$16	−$4 (-21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$20	+$4	+20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$100	+$10	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	59¢	$20	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	84¢	$30	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL No	95¢	$16	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$20	31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	79¢	$20	31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$20	31h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY No	82¢	$10	13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY No	91¢	$20	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.45 · official $102.45 (match) · 11 history records