Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb87…63f8 weather 358 markets active 11h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$12 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%158W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$155
14 days+$127
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$79
weather 38% −$52
other 12% −$4
crypto 4% −$25
world 1% −$2
finance 1% −$21
politics 1% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +49.1% +34.9% 66% 66% +33.9%
≤30d 224 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 49% -9.2%
≤90d 325 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 45% -11.7%
all 325 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 45% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 45% -11.7%
10% -23.5% 39% -20.1%
15% -30.9% 29% -27.8%
20% -37.7% 24% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses158 / 167
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions33
Markets (closed)325 / 358
History coverage61d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? No 51¢ 80¢ $14 $22 +$8 (+56%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 19? No 70¢ 92¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+31%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? No 62¢ 59¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 19? No 65¢ 74¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? No 64¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ 55¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 57¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 84¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+42%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? No 63¢ 58¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 50¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+33%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 86¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+134%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 72¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+81%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$9 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$7 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$8 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$5 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$11 +75%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$6 +134%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +140%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 +$138 +2406%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $4 +$3 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$6 +68%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 11? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +51%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +304%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +38%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $3 +$3 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? BUY No 63¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 65¢ $12 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $12 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $13 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $14 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $14 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 51¢ $14 42h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $5 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $14 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $5 2d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $14 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.43 · official $190.15 (match) · 568 history records